COVID-19 Health Care Supply Chain Solutions: PPE Forecasting

The University of Florida Health created their own PPE calculator allowing them to calculate current demand and forecast future worst case scenario needs. This free model uses Sg2 data to better estimate the downstream demand for PPE and workforce needs incorporating timing and impacts of social distancing in individual markets using the specific beta in the SIR model.

Supply chain applications within the UF Health calculator include a modified HHS model and incorporates Sg2 average daily census output in weeks/days. Ratios for patient input are modified depending on individual hospital labor needs and PPE assumptions per role per shift, and auto calculates daily PPE demand based on patient classifications. This model can be applied to any PPE with multiple data sources such as order quantities allocated from distributors to determine what is needed several weeks out and can be adjusted to meet any size facility and specific supply nuances, such as distribution strategy and PPE conservation efforts.

Takeaway Tools

Download the Sg2 Surge Demand Calculator

Download HHS Model using Sg2 Calculations

Download PPE Forecasting - Isolation Gown Example

Access the COVID-19 Education Playlist on YouTube

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